For ten years, Pakistan has seen an unparalleled battle on every front-from the political corridors of Islamabad to the global one, where major powers, including the United States and China, find an arena of influence. And now, the country stands at a very crucial juncture. The interplay of the economy and politics with national security in projects such as the CPEC, supplemented by its nuclear assets, has situated the country at the hotbed of international intrigue. The developments that have taken place during the past few years and especially from 2018 onward reflect this multi-dimensional geopolitical tussle.
The Ouster of Nawaz Sharif:
Then in 2018, the political scenario of Pakistan changed with the sacking of then-Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. On face value, the basis for his sacking was corruption allegations and issues of legality. A number of observers say that there is much more in terms of a motive behind this action.Sharif was perceived as an imposing political force in the form of a leader who would give a facelift to the Pakistan economy on the strength of Chinese and international investments, especially by way of CPEC.
If such investments had indeed come about, there would have been a sea change visible in Pakistan’s economy, giving solid grounds to the political position of Sharif and rendering him virtually unbeatable before the public. As one of the key military figures involved confessed, there was a compelling reason to “cut Nawaz Sharif down to size.” The underlying political engineering in this is explained, at a broader level, by the role of international powers, above all the United States, which wanted to use the judiciary to tame China’s growing influence in the region, especially through the CPEC.
Geopolitical Power Play – U.S, China, and Pakistan:
For decades, it has been obvious how Pakistan is a geopolitical chess piece. The United States has huge influence in the internal affairs of Pakistan, most especially through the vast infrastructure of the CIA spread across the country. In fact, the judiciary was also influenced according to some analysts, wherein American interests saw to it that CPEC did not emerge as an economic lifeline for Pakistan.Of course, the bigger geopolitical backdrop to this is a fierce competition by the U.S aimed at containing China’s rise in the region-against which latter it has been trying to prevent China from acquiring a strategic foothold in South Asia.
In other words, stopping CPEC was part of that broad strategy. A destabilized political leadership in Pakistan means weakening of the economic bonds between Pakistan and China, hence clipping Beijing’s growing influence in the region.
Fifth-Generation Warfare:
One of the most striking features of this continuing battle is the manipulation of public perception that has variously been termed fifth-generation war. It has seen a concerted effort, over time, to malign national politicians from across Pakistan.
Figures like Nawaz Sharif have been painted as thieves and traitors, even accused of blasphemy, to keep public perception against them. Simultaneously, it has venerated individuals with questionable moral standing as heroes, polarizing the nation.This fifth-generation war does not remain confined to the political frontiers. The dwindling economy of Pakistan, which has kept the prospects of default and even loss of its nuclear assets hanging in a balance, is part of a bigger conspiracy. Having pushed Pakistan to its knees economically, external powers might be trying to divest the country of its strategic assets, particularly nuclear capability.
The May 9 attack on the Chain of Command:
The May 9 uprising marked one of the most important recent events in Pakistan’s political history. This could, arguablly viewed as an attack on the chain of command of the military would have brought dire consequences for the nation. In case of success, the rebellion would have fractured the top leadership of the military and by extension the country as a whole.The then-Lahore corps commander played the most critical role during this juncture and categorically stated, “I will not fire on my own citizens.” Though that stance was quite noble, it did point to the deep divisions in the country’s power structures. Nevertheless, the sanctity of the military’s chain of command stopped the uprising from being able to succeed. A unified military response avoided the country falling into chaos amidst so much internal and external pushing for change.
The Role of the Judiciary:
Other essential elements of the internal issues of Pakistan pertain to the judiciary. For a few years now, parts of the judiciary have been criticized for blocking crucial constitutional amendments which would have empowered both the political and legal system in the country. These have accused the judiciary of keeping the Senate, provincial assemblies, and the national assembly incomplete by granting reserved seats to the PTI and impeding effective legislative change.It is one of the gigantic obstacles to Pakistan’s path towards political stability.
The sit-in at D-Chowk was believed to be the final attack to salvage jurisprudence elements. However, while the military has already undertaken its internal reforms, many believe that once the constitutional amendments are legislated, even the judiciary will also be cleansed from the disrupting elements.
Safeguarding Pakistan’s Future:
Yet, there is a silver lining-a hope that Pakistan could tide over this current phase of its political and economic turmoil. The current chain of command in the military has all along been committed to damage control in particular with regard to the political fallouts of the change in 2018. And as constitutional amendments are reportedly in the offing, there is the view that even the judiciary will be reformed for ensuring orderliness and transparency in the political process.
The future of Pakistan is inextricably enmeshed with the geopolitical rivalry between the U.S. and China. As its strategic assets, including nuclear capability and its role in CPEC, make it a hotbed of this global power tussle, Pakistan needs to be shrewd while handling the triangle of alliance and rivalry at a regional scale-of which it, India, and China are a part.If the leadership and reforms are put in place, then Insha’Allah, Pakistan can overcome all these challenges and secure a prosperous future.
May Allah protect Pakistan.
Frequently Asked Questions
What impression does Nawaz Sharif’s removal create in the political outlook of Pakistan?
Nawaz Sharif was deposed in 2018, and his ouster was a dramatic turn of events that took place in the political outlook of Pakistan. Though it was officially because of corruption charges, many argue that it was rather an important and strategic link to hinder Sharif’s rise in political esteem through projects such as the CPEC, which would have revitalized the economy of Pakistan and cemented Sharif in power.
In what ways does CPEC link to altering geopolitics in Pakistan?
CPEC has brought Pakistan into the spotlight of a geopolitical tussle between China and the U.S., as it seeks a strategic toehold in South Asia. In contrast, the U.S. is trying to contain the Chinese influence-which is spreading across the region-and Pakistan has become the battleground in this greater competition.
What do the concepts of fifth-generation war relate to, and how does it relate to Pakistan?
Fifth-generation warfare is a domain of war that involves manipulation of public perception through information and psychological operations. It has included, among others, the discrediting of politicians, unleashing misinformation, and creating societal divisions with intent toward weakening internal Pakistan in service to geopolitical interests of others.
What happened in the May 9 uprising in Pakistan?
The May 9 uprising was indeed an internal rebellion and was intended at dislocating the chain of command within the Pakistan army. Were that to have succeeded, that would most certainly have splintered the military leadership of the country. In the event, however, the sanctity of the chain of command prevailed to help avert further chaos and to safeguard the cause of national stability.
What role has the judiciary played in blocking constitutional reforms in Pakistan?
There are also accusations of the Pakistani judiciary impeding any progressive constitutional amendments, including legislative reforms, which would have given strength to the political system of the country. The judiciary is also criticized for keeping incomplete assemblies and putting the due processes of legislation in jeopardy, thus becoming an integral part of the political turmoil in the country.
How has the U.S.-China rivalry impacted Pakistan’s internal affairs?
With the rise in influence by CPEC, Pakistan has become a geopolitical chess piece in the broad U.S.-China rivalry. The latter has tried to balance this influence by putting pressure on the judiciary and political scenery of Pakistan. This has further accentuated the internal political divisions, impacting the political stability of Pakistan’s governance and economic stability.
How may constitutional amendments help towards enhancement in political stability within Pakistan?
Constitutional amendments may be a way to bring in much-needed reforms into the political system of the country and rid the judiciary from external influences. In fact, such changes are deemed essential to usher in transparency, restore the credibility of institutions, and create the ground for political and economic stability.
What is the future of Pakistan against the backdrop of global power play?
The future of Pakistan is fast becoming intertwined with the present great-game rivalry between the U.S. and China. With its strategic assets-nuclear capability, involvement in CPEC, among others-Pakistan will have to maneuver carefully between these two giants. With successful leadership and military stability, reforms within the judiciary will be able to push away these hindrances, and a bright future will be secured for Pakistan.